Ray Nelson of the Northern Rockies Fire Coordination Center in Missoula said it's too early to guarantee a bad fire season. While conditions in Montana are bad, it's not necessarily snow or the lack of it that points to imminently bad fire seasons, he said.
"June moisture, that's the best predictor of a fire season,'' he said.
As somebody who lives with the land I totally agree with this but it leads to a question. Where did Gov. Brian Schweitzer">The Second Coming get his information? A little while ago he was all over the news with his statement that he wanted National Guard troops home to fight the fires because the state is "a powder keg" and his statement,"I know it's going to be a bad fire year" was his prediction.
So who is right, Ray Nelson who works in the area of fighting fires or Gov. Brian Schweitzer">The Second Coming who's wild predictions made so much noise? I realize that as Governor he should be prepared but did he consult anybody who knows more about the fire situation or was he just shooting from the hip. Listening to information is just as important as acting on the information.
Public administrators would get along better if they would restrain the impulse to butt in or be dragged into trouble. They should remain silent until an issue is reduced to its lowest terms. Calvin Coolidge
Mike
Last year was just as dry, if not drier, than this year in a lot of areas so by your analysis, and the second comings, it should have been a horrible fire season. It wasn't. Ain't all common sense, experience also plays a role.
While I don't usually give long range weather forcasts much merit, both the US and Canada models don't have much precip coming in our direction through mid-June, which is as far out as the models are currently 'valid.'
Mike
I don't always comment here when I agree with him, not very often, but I have at least once done it here and there are a couple of issues I can't fault him on.
If I was going to criticize every statement he made I would have commented on the Indian education story today and either said that we need less money than he proposed or he is giving an important issue not enough money. But I didn't talk about it one way or the other.
Another issue today I could have criticized him on was the issue of his problem with the student regent and "striking a deal" with her today. I could say there was no reason to try to block her nomination or I could complain that he has no right to try to cut her tenure short. But again I did not complain either way.
I could have also complained about his threat against legislators that are opposed to his ethanol bill. I could have called him a poor sport and he needs to respect other peoples opinion. I could have said a lot of things, But I didn't.
I don't criticize everything The Second Coming says, just the ones that I see a problem with.
Smokejumpers have a saying, "The best time to predict a fire season is the following November."
Nobody knows what's going to happen this year.