Duh

Sometimes I come across something that is so unbelievably obvious I can't believe that it is being reported on as news.

Major Tokyo Quake Expected Within 50 Years

Now as seismically active as the Japan area is this prediction to me gets a "duh, no s--t" type response from me. Then I read the first paragraph.

Japan's capital has a 90 percent chance of being devastated by a major earthquake some time in the next 50 years, according to a study by a government panel.

This is no different than me predicting there is a 90% chance that in the next 10 years it will rain where I live. It is probable a real good bet, even though I would have to wonder at the moment. I sure hope I get rain in that time frame, if I don't I sure enough won't be ranching here. I wonder what the members of this "government panel" were paid to make this stupendous announcement? Had to have been a political payoff of some kind.

He who lives by the crystal ball soon learns to eat ground glass. Edgar R. Fiedler