The nation's beef cattle herd, both in number and by
weight, will be thinner in 2007, say some analysts, with high corn prices seen
as a major deterrent to expansion.
Analysts used current 2007 corn futures values in their projections, although
a large number of ethanol plants being built could push corn prices even higher
as that fuel competes with livestock for corn supplies.
"The big shift the US cattle industry will be looking at in 2007 is the
contraction of the beef cattle herd, which had begun to expand in 2004," said
Dan Vaught, economist with AG Edwards & Sons. "The trend toward tighter beef
supplies has already begun as seen in the last U.S. Department of Agriculture
monthly cattle-on feed report and we will see that trend continue in the next
report."
The next USDA monthly report, for November's data, is scheduled for release
on Friday. Vaught predicts the number of cattle placed into feedlots for final
fattening was down 10% in November, compared with a year ago. Other early
analyst estimates are close to that figure.
More news that confirms the price I get for cattle should at least hold firm. If corn prices were lower the price I would get for calves would go up but hold steady is good enough for me, I guess. It's better than the prices going down but a slight raise in prices would be nice. Prices for everything else goes up so a raise in price wouldn't hurt but you can't have everything.
Shoot for the moon. Even if you miss, you'll land among the stars. Les Brown
